When will XOM recover?

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Historic market highs and XOM continues the downward trend. How much will oil have to be before this stops?

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Well XOM just wrote off their oil sands Kearl assert as unprofitable for the next few years. That's not a good sign as they've invested 10s of billions there. I'd say they need to reshuffle their upstream assets big time to get profitable. They've made some really bad bets on Russia and Iraq lately.

Well, only ~33% of $XOM's business is tied to upstream Oil, so probably a lot. Their big problem, as of late, has been the dramatic rise in gasoline inventories (all time high). Hell, NY harbor is turning away tankers, that's how bad it is. Once these start to drawdown you should see the stock recover, although the Singapore carbon tax will likely have a pretty negative impact since $XOM refines something like 600,000 bpd there (I personally thing this risk is already priced in).

The API data released yesterday suggests the gasoline inventory drawdown has already started, which should bolster investor sentiment.