re: Wow, didn't know the 9th circuit has an 80% reversal rate at the Supreme Court

quote:

---

It's basically telling you how frequently, when this court is asked to weigh in on difficult questions, they get it wrong.

---

THIS.

The talking point, while it does have validity, that they only send a small percentage of cases to the SC and even though it is an 80% reversal it is marginal.

This assumes all cases are equal. They are not. Especially this case.

It's known and quite obvious which cases the SC will take and a tiered approach needs to be taken when looking at the "only 1%" of the cases that go to the SC of which 80% are overturned.

For the sake of simplicity, lets "assume" this case goes to the supreme court (which it will) and by definition fits the "1%". Which 80% of like cases get overturned. This fits that mold.

The mental gymnastics on this is totally missing the point that all cases are not created equal and is taking statistical validity and its most basic form when in reality more complex layers are needed to analyze.