re: Exports to the U.S. make up about 30% of Mexican economy

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The question is whether a 20% (or possibly less) tariff will be enough to completely discourage trade or just increase prices for the US?

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They won't raise prices enough for it to really affect anyone in the US. We don't use Mexican products because of their quality. We use them because of their prices. Their prices aren't significantly less than their competitors. Mexican products prices might go up, but they still have to compete.