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Why do so many MLB teams bid against themselves?

Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:22 am
Posted by BobCoot
United States of America
Member since Nov 2016
434 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:22 am
Recent examples:

Mariners GM hears Cano got a 9/225 mil offer so he then offers him 10/240 m, turns out the 225 mil offer was from the Mariners

Orioles initially offer Chris Davis 7/140 mil and then give him 7/161 mil despite no reported interest from other clubs at that price

Yankees giving A Rod 10/275 mil in 2008, no way any team would have given him that.

Marlins giving Stanton 13 years - 325 mil , he was under club control , no reason to go that long and big . Coming off his injury he would have taken half of that to secure his future
Posted by Hester Carries
Member since Sep 2012
22486 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Mariners GM hears Cano got a 9/225 mil offer so he then offers him 10/240 m, turns out the 225 mil offer was from the Mariners



Huh? Who offered it? Was he high on pills and forgot?
Posted by BobCoot
United States of America
Member since Nov 2016
434 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:34 am to
Posted by Hester Carries
Member since Sep 2012
22486 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:36 am to
that link essentially says the story isnt true.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82060 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 11:53 am to
It's not like they're hurting for money, so who cares?
They have a shite ton of money.
Posted by BenDover
Member since Jul 2010
5426 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:12 pm to
I've read your posts and you're a smart guy but that's a dumb comment. Just because they have the money doesn't mean they should overbid for FAs.

Free Agency in baseball is ridiculous. These 6 year contracts for 200mm+ for 30-32 year old players RARELY work out. And yet it's become almost a yearly occurrence for a couple clubs to make these idiotic offers.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

These 6 year contracts for 200mm+ for 30-32 year old players RARELY work out.
they actually really arent as bad as people believe they are
This post was edited on 1/19/17 at 12:15 pm
Posted by BobCoot
United States of America
Member since Nov 2016
434 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:16 pm to
How many of those long term deals for guys already in their 30's were worth it?

Posted by BenDover
Member since Jul 2010
5426 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:19 pm to
How can you possibly say that? I'm really curious as to what kind of quantitative evidence you can dig up to support that claim.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60222 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:21 pm to
I wish I had the access you have to these free agency negotiations. Must be incredible
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:24 pm to
just off the top of my head for those that currently dont look bad

robinson cano, miguel cabrera, scherzer, joey votto, arod was worth 18 WAR between his age 32 and 35 seasons, felix hernandez was in his late 20s when he signed his deal but the first 4 years worked out well for them which is all you can ask for, zack greinke is still up in the air even though he is far and away the favorite for biggest bounce back year

david price's is still up in the air and even he was still worth 4.5 wins last year

pujols and hamilton were disasters, prince fielders doesnt look too good either
This post was edited on 1/19/17 at 12:32 pm
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

just off the top of my head for those that currently dont look bad

robinson cano, miguel cabrera, scherzer, joey votto, arod was worth 18 WAR between his age 32 and 35 seasons, felix hernandez was in his late 20s when he signed his deal but the first 4 years worked out well for them which is all you can ask for, zack greinke is still up in the air even though he is far and away the favorite for biggest bounce back year

david price's is still up in the air and even he was still worth 4.5 wins last year

pujols and hamilton were disasters, prince fielders doesnt look too good either
This post was edited on 1/19/17 at 12:31 pm
Posted by jeff5891
Member since Aug 2011
15761 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:27 pm to
Or they offered a price, player says he would rather take less money to play somewhere else than play for offered price, then team ups price bc they don't want to lose player.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:27 pm to
fangraphs just did an article that suggests that baseball athletes are currently aging better than at any other point in baseball history, outside of the craziness that was the PED era

LINK /
Posted by BenDover
Member since Jul 2010
5426 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:40 pm to
Scherzersooks good because he's been dominant but he's got a lot of deferred money and that's a bit scary for my taste. He's been incredible thus far though.

Pujols, Hamilton, Fielder, have all been atrocious. Ellsbury, and Crawford are both awful as well.

Price and Greinke were both average at best last year, but you're not paying those guys to be average. You're paying them to be elite. That's my problem with those two.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

Scherzersooks good because he's been dominant but he's got a lot of deferred money and that's a bit scary for my taste. He's been incredible thus far though.

meh, doesnt change anything about his actual production which he has absolutely no signs of slowing down any time soon. the value he will be providing them right now will be more than worth it once the deferments kick in
quote:

Ellsbury, and Crawford
these guys didnt get 200 million but fine. you can add them if you want
quote:

Price and Greinke were both average at best last year, but you're not paying those guys to be average.
price was worth 4.5 wins which is worth 36 million dollars so he still provided $6 million in surplus value to the red sox. zack greinke had a rough year last year but he is the single biggest favorite for having a bounce back year so thats still up in the air to me

so once again, when you actually take the time to look at it, it turns out that these contract work about as often as they dont which is the nature of the sport
This post was edited on 1/19/17 at 12:49 pm
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8444 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 1:14 pm to
The point that you, and a lot of other people, don't grasp is underperforming in the latter years of contract can be justified by overperforming in the early years of a contract.

For example, Scherzer has accounted for 46% of the WAR the Nats "paid for" through 29% of his contract.
Posted by The Seaward
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2006
11353 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

The point that you, and a lot of other people, don't grasp is underperforming in the latter years of contract can be justified by overperforming in the early years of a contract.

For example, Scherzer has accounted for 46% of the WAR the Nats "paid for" through 29% of his contract.


Exactly. And their is no point in front loading the contract to better match the production due to the time value of money.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

. And their is no point in front loading the contract to better match the production due to the time value of money
and that's what makes scherzers contract that much better
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278685 posts
Posted on 1/19/17 at 1:52 pm to
Do you really think there aren't other offers that the public doesn't know about?
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