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Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:59 pm to
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35250 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

Midget death squad
quote:

tagatose
What is so funny? He gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning and was criticized by many on the left for giving Trump that chance. He even discussed the possibility of the Popular Vote-EC split that occured, and gave that single scenario a better chance of occurring than most other models gave Trump winning across all possible outcomes.

The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

Now unless your criticisms are Nassim Taleb's criticism that the data would be better modeled as a Weiner Process/Brownian Motion/Stochastic process--in which case the even election model (for every election) would hover around 50/50 until right before the election--then what are your criticisms?
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

It's close, but as predicted in May, right now the "tipping point state" of the 2016 election is Pennsylvania.


they're peacocking about this
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 2:02 pm
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

He gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning


trump could've lost florida and still won...he's over 300 EVs right now. We could hold that election 10 days in a row and trump would win more than 3 times.

you defended him based on results...will you be able to do that next time? No, you won't. Why is that? Because he was waaaaaaaaaaaaay off. If you tell people there's a 70% chance, yeah you're not making a guarantee, obviously...but seeing the result in hand

he...was...W-R-O-N-G

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