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re: tOfficial Nate Silver fail thread
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:45 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:45 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
what do you think the probability of this outcome was beforehand?
I have been telling you since Day 1 that I had the same info as Nate, and was banking on a Trump win. Trump had the same numbers as Nate, and knew that Penn, Mich, and Wisc was winnable and went there. Clintonistas used Nates 'view' and never went one time to Wisc. Not once
Yet Nate had Trump at 15%, around a week out.
Sorry his algorithm is shite, and biased. Based on voting patterns that he pines for, not what is fairly well known thru research. Basically, hes lazy
1
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:52 pm to RobbBobb
quote:And Nate even commended Trump's approach to going to these states and questioned why Hillary was in Arizona. He knew Trump had a good chance, but that doesn't mean he was the favorite to win.
Trump had the same numbers as Nate, and knew that Penn, Mich, and Wisc was winnable and went there.
quote:The model lags the data and the data lag the changes in views. It increased rapidly last week for a reason following the changing in polling data.
Yet Nate had Trump at 15%, around a week out.
quote:It's flawed (and he has admitted it), but it gave the Trump the best odds of any model despite the data showing a Clinton lead.
Sorry his algorithm is shite, and biased.
What else is he supposed to do? Just ignore the inputs of his model?
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