re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...

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But the ridge itself is part of the forecast. There isn't some guaranteed ridge and location that he knows and the models don't. In essence, he is saying the ridge that only exists in the models at this point is not being handled properly by the models.

You know what you will never see? You'll never see someone on a weather forum post that they think the ridge will be weaker than the models suggest and the storm will move northward much earlier in the forecast period, causing absolutely no concerns in the recently flooded area of LA. That kind of prediction doesn't get the juices flowing, but it is just as likely as his hunch.