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re: When do interest rates rise
Posted on 7/20/16 at 8:43 pm to GenesChin
Posted on 7/20/16 at 8:43 pm to GenesChin
quote:
While I can get on board with inflation numbers being borderline joke, there is no way there is 10-20% unemployment.
At least, given the known way unemployment is measured, there is no way 10-20%
The ~90 million+ adults unemployed/permanently out of labor force might disagree with your observational analysis. I'd venture real unemployment is 20% at a minimum, and approaching Depression-like levels (25~30%)
Being generous to your argument, the current labor force participation rate hovers around 61-63% month to month, the lowest it has been in over 30 years.
"Given the way unemployment is measured", if the economy stays on its current path, pretty soon we'll have 100 million adults out of the labor force and sub 4% unemployment. The current scenario cannot create real unemployment at the current rate around 5%.
If you want to see a real labor market where unemployment was below 5% try GWB's first term until 9/11/2001. This is the last time the economy was at full employment.
As Obama will soon become the only president in history to have ZERO quarters during his administration with GDP growth at or greater than 3%, why is it impossible to believe unemployment exceeds 20%, or even your 10% figure?
Posted on 7/20/16 at 9:07 pm to GoIrish02
quote:
I'd venture real unemployment is 20% at a minimum, and approaching Depression-like levels (25~30%)
You are insane. 1 in 5 people you know are unemployed??
In a lot of areas, wages are increasing. Are they going as fast as people want? No. Are some people still unemployed? Of course
In Northwest Arkansas, unemployment is 2.3%. Wages are definitely going up, and quickly. There is nothing here supporting your 20% unemployment bs. Depending on your perspective, unemployment is too low here. Do you really think the rate is 18% off?
Posted on 7/20/16 at 9:19 pm to GoIrish02
The only folks I see that can't get a job are those that are over 50 and were laid off back in 08-09, they don't have much skill and will not accept a lower tier job than their previous one. Essentially they've been replaced by a younger group who is cheaper or a computer.
The second group that can't get a job are the ones finishing college and still can't put down the dope.
The second group that can't get a job are the ones finishing college and still can't put down the dope.
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