re: When will NBA structure league more like NFL

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Through last week, the average audience for TNT’s national games is down 8.2% from 2014, according to Nielsen, while ESPN’s national games are down 5.6%. Both cable networks also saw early-season losses in the valuable demographic of adults ages 18 to 49, with TNT off by 12.7% and ESPN down 4.5% through Thursday.

These drops are part of a steady decline in the NBA’s cable viewership since the 2012 lockout season. NBA audiences last season fell 10% on ESPN to 1.5 million viewers and 12% on TNT to 1.7 million—their lowest since 2008.

Michael Morris, a cable-industry analyst at Guggenheim Securities, says live sports should continue to earn premiums from networks in coming years, but that the advertising market won’t wait forever. “At some point you have to see the financial impact of losing some audiences,” he said.

Artie Bulgrin, ESPN’s senior vice president for global research, said some of the network’s NBA viewers decline is due to scheduling: ESPN’s four opening-week NBA telecasts went up against two World Series games and a Republican debate. With those games factored out, the network’s viewers are flat, according to Nielsen.

Bulgrin said he wished the Warriors were on the schedule more often given that they’re the best team in the league, but they still don’t command the same audiences as marquee teams in larger cities. “It’s Golden State,” Bulgrin said. “It’s not New York, Chicago or Los Angeles.”

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