re: Stealing third with no outs.

quote:

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sorry, there is no way in hell stealing third is successful 72% of the time. in college for sure. that's unmitigated bull shite.

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I'll look for collegiate numbers but they're incredibly difficult to find.

70.85% for the 2009 season in MLB

Baseball Prospectus article says 72% success rate in MLB from 1998-2002

Unmitigated bull shite huh?

ETA: In 2009, the success rate for stealing third with 2 outs was actually 88.5%. Stealing third with two outs is one of the most against the grain moves you an make in baseball, but given the expected run values in the 2009 season and the success rate, it actually produced approximately .01 more runs.

You can argue all you'd like about whether or not you like it, but the facts are that it was/is the right decision if you can be that successful.

ETA.2: You may feel as though that is a statistically insignificant benefit, and you may be right, but to act like it is some sort of steadfast, you should never, ever, ever do it rules is absurd.