re: China is going to beat us, ET will call them first

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Think about it: if the models of the universe are accurate, that means that over the course of the last billions of years, there should have been millions or even billions of planets in our own galaxy alone that developed like ours, sprung life that developed technology, who set out into the cosmos.

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maybe, maybe not. If you don't know of the Toba catastrophe, I suggest reading about it. Maybe that's what is needed to spur self awareness and the odds of it happening at the right place and right time are so astronomically small that we are the first, or among the first self aware creatures in the universe. Toba Catastrophe Theory