re: Knowing What we Know now, does Gavrilo Princip pull the Trigger?

quote:

---

The situation in the summer of 1914 in Europe was about as complicated as you can get. There are so many things that by themselves looked insignificant but when added together all lead to the conflagration that we know as WWI. And there were many chances to avoid the war all together. Sadly those chances were lost. Basically once the mobilization of armies started, the die was cast and war was inevitable.

One aspect of the summer of 1914 that's long interested me from a "what if" standpoint is what would have the war looked like had the Brits not got involved and instead let the continental powers sort things out among themselves. I'd say there's a good chance had this happened Germany would have forced France to sue for peace within it's allotted 6 week time frame, thus freeing up massive forces it could then turn on Russia. Which if this had happened it's very likely the Russians, abandoned by their main ally and facing a both Germany & Austria-Hungary, themselves would have sued for peace before the fall of 1914.

Imagine how that would have changed the world. Germany's & Austria's Empires would have been victorious and thus probably never collapse. These two powers would have become the undisputed powers in Europe.

The Ottomans, who entered the war in November 1914 would have, in this altered war, never got involved and thus their empire likely would have not seen it's own collapse either. The whole structure of the Middle East over the past century would be fundamentally changed. And with the rise of Middle Eastern oil, there's a good chance that even today the Ottoman Empire could be one of the richest, if not the richest countries on the planet.

Then there's Russia. With a short war lasting only weeks or a couple months, the Romanov Dynasty, already facing problems no doubt, would have probably survived at least until Nicolas II died years later. Imagine a world without a USSR and the "rise of communism" that dominated so much of the 20th century.

Great Britain would have remained the world's biggest economic power, albeit with an even more emboldened Germany nipping at it's heels. Would these two "super powers" eventually gone to war? Who know?

Then there's us. What of America? Without a long drawn out WWI, the U.S. would not see the massive flood of money coming in from GB, France, & Russia as we bankrolled and supplied their war efforts. How would the US look today without all the wealth we made off WWI?

And what of France? This would be the second time in about a generation they'd been crushed by those damn Germans? It's almost a certainty the French government of 1914 would collapse and be replaced by something. But what? Could there have been a disgruntled French corporal who rose from the ranks of an upstart political party to seize power with promises of returning France to her former glory?

Then there's also more general aspects of how WWI shaped our lives. Without a long war there would never have been a flood of women leaving the home for the first time to work in war factories. What would the "feminist" movement look like today? Would there really even be one? Yes, there were feminists before WWI, but it was WWI, and the massive transfer of women from housewives to workers, more than anything else that brought their movement to where it is today.

And what of technology? Look at how WWI took aircraft development and put it into warp drive. Without WWI what would aircraft development looked like today? Would be be this advanced? And it doesn't stop there. Without WWI, there's no such things as tanks or chemical weapons.

And you've also got to consider the technological advances of not just WWI, but also WWII as well since WWII is yet another result of WWI. WWII gave us things like the rocket, atomic energy (and weapons) and even the computer. When would these things have been developed? Would they have been developed?

There's so many "what ifs" that come to mind had even small details in the summer of 1914 gone differently that it boggles the mind.

---

Holy shite, this.

Also what you did there...

quote:

---

And what of France? This would be the second time in about a generation they'd been crushed by those damn Germans? It's almost a certainty the French government of 1914 would collapse and be replaced by something. But what? Could there have been a disgruntled French corporal who rose from the ranks of an upstart political party to seize power with promises of returning France to her former glory?

---

I see it.

For as much shite as you get on here, Darth, you damn sure know your history.