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re: Cashier at store told me one guy has spent $4000 on Powerball
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:13 pm to Marco Esquandolas
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:13 pm to Marco Esquandolas
quote:
You don't understand odds...
Pray tell?
ETA: Unless you're implying that I'm not converting odds to fractions, but that is insignificant with numbers this large.
Additionally, the "odds" listed for the Powerball are not the same as betting odds in horse racing, for example.
1 in 292,201,338 means there are that many possibilities and one will be the winner. It isn't a ratio in the case of the Powerball.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 7:36 pm
3
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:16 pm to slackster
Your odds dont jump that much. Its not as simple as fractions.
By your odds math spending $50000 guarantees you a win. It doesnt work that way.
By your odds math spending $50000 guarantees you a win. It doesnt work that way.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:06 pm to slackster
quote:I've learned today that a lot of people don't understand probability whatsoever.
Pray tell?
I even got into a debate with my wife about it tonight.
Recently my sister-in-law found out she was having twins, and her husband, an engineer, said, "there is a 2/3 chance of having a boy because there are three scenarios." I tried to explain that it's actually 3/4 (assuming 50/50 for each child), and he still looked unconvinced.
In other words, even quantitatively inclined individuals have trouble with the logic of probability.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 5:53 am to slackster
Slackster, there is a distinction in statistics between probability and odds. Not quite OT material but this might help.
Probability vs Odds
Probability vs Odds
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