re: 2016 Season Long Hurricane Thread - Alex and Pali

The strong El-Nino is likely to cool to neutral conditions by late Spring according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The temperatures right now in the main development region of the Tropical Atlantic is actually slightly warmer than normal for January. Not saying that there will be above normal sea surface temperatures in July-September time frame but something to keep an eye on.

It will be interesting to see how strong or weak the Azores-Bermuda surface ridge becomes during the June and July months. Stronger ridge will keep trade winds blowing stronger and a weaker ridge will allow the easterlies to be lighter. Lower pressures in the MDR will allow easier spin up of tropical waves. Also, lighter winds will allow warmer SST's in the Atlantic basin.

Another factor will be the Saharan Dust in Northern Africa. Dust is usually prevalent in the early hurricane season and can easily create stability in the Tropical Atlantic basin.