re: Is "smart money" piling into oil once the calendar flips to January?

quote:

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Define a long while

A year?
5 years?
20?

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Short of some major geopolitical event that caused a crazy quick spike, I don't see it rising above $100 in the next 5 years. The market fundamentals just don't support that. And even if there was some major geopolitical event, I think it would be a very quick jump, as we have a ton of oil now in storage and we could turn on some additional sources pretty quickly (as in 1-3 months)

Oil is oil. There are different grades from different places, but it's not like there is new and improved oil that would command a higher price. We are getting it from more places. More companies and countries want to be and are in the exploration game. OPEC is essentially broken, especially since it's clear the Saudis don't give a crap about anyone but themselves. And the rest of the petro-countries have to keep producing as so much of their national budgets are based on oil. $40 a barrel is horrible for them but it's better than nothing.