re: Patrick Towles

Basil,

When I compare QB stats I look at five things, four of which are ratios:

(1) QB Rating also called QB Efficiency [not to be confused ESPN'S QBR which is complete garbage],

(2) Completion percentage,

(3) Yards Per Attempt,

(4) TD to INT ratio, and

(5) year in college.

I don't look at gross stats like total passing yards or total TDs because factors such as injuries, offensive scheme, and win/loss record have too big an influence on gross numbers, and those non-QB talent factors can obscure proper analysis.

I didn't follow Towles this season, so I have no preconception on whether he's any good or not.

So let me take a look at him and compare him to Harris:

Brandon Harris 2015
(1) QB Rating: 127.77
(2) Comp%: 53.1%
(3) YPA: 7.5
(4) TD to INT ratio: 2.4
(5) True So.

Patrick Towles 2015
(1) QB Rating: 112.01
(2) Comp%: 56.1%
(3) YPA: 6.6
(4) TD to INT ratio: .6
(5) RS Jr.

Towles does NOT compare favorably to Harris.

My main factor, efficiency is higher for Harris by over 15 points.

I look at Comp% and YPA in tandem, a higher YPA usually justifies a lower Comp% because a short pass scheme (West Coast) usually results in more completions while a vertical scheme usually results in fewer completions. Towles has a higher Comp%, but it's not that much higher, particularly considering the YPA. I like Harris better here.

The TD to INT ratio STRONGLY favors Harris. Towles looks especially bad. I really don't want a QB who throws more INTs than TDs.

Harris is about to start his third year. He's only started for one year. Third and fourth years are big. Towles completed his fourth year in college and his second year starting. I don't see much upside at this point.


Some posts in this thread seem to suggest that Towles had a better 2014 than 2015. So let's look at his 2014 season:

Patrick Towles 2014
(1) QB Rating: 122.51
(2) Comp%: 57.3%
(3) YPA: 6.9
(4) TD to INT ratio: 1.5
(5) RS So.

Towles does NOT compare favorably to Harris in his 2014 season either. It's closer in 2014 than 2015, but Harris still looks better.


If it's up to me (and I know that it's not), I pass on Towles. That's what my analysis shows. He's been in college for four years already. Harris has been in for just two years. If LSU takes a transfer QB, it should be someone other than Towles.