re: College Football News Prediction: Bama 27 LSU 17

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It's not an unreasonable prediction. Could happen

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Of course it's not unreasonable. But reason has no place on the Tiger Rant where many think the fans'/sportswriters' opinions have some type of influence on the game.

Why LSU will win:

LSU doesn't exactly fool anyone with their offensive approach. EVERYONE knows Fournette is going to get the ball and EVERYONE loads up to stop it. Yet, EVERYONE has a hard time stopping him. Bama's front 7 is great. Maybe the best in the country. But to act like they are leaps a bounds better than a team like UF is bit much.

While not by a large margin, LSU has the better skill players in this game. Bama is not going to give Harris much room to fit the ball into his receivers. That should be nothing new because rarely does Harris have much room to fit the ball into his receivers. Still, he's got the arm strength and accuracy to stick the ball into tight windows. He's done it all year. This passing game is more like 2012 than 2014, 2010, etc.

The front 4 can actually get a bit of pressure on their own now. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Coker has been the worst QB in the Saban era. He's had his good moments, but he's also had some really bad ones as well.

Why Bama will win

They always come out with the mindset to be the aggressor and take the game to LSU from the start. On the other hand it always feels like LSU's offense wants to play ultra-safe until they absolutely can't anymore. LSU has led at halftime only one time in this game (09) since 2008. There are some legitimate concerns about LSU's defense this year and I don't think LSU can afford to go down early by more than one score. Les has the better offensive personnel, but will he be willing to attack Bama from the outset or will he just try to match them blow for blow and neuter his offense in a effort to make absolutely sure they don't turn the ball over?

LSU hasn't been bad defensively, but they've busted a coverage or two that led to TD's in just about every game this year. It's hard to think that after 7 games that won't happen again. In a game that is always tight, one or two coverage bust can be the difference.

Special teams have been a HUGE problem all year and unnecessarily given opponents points and/or short fields. FG kicking has been great, but do you trust Kheen not to shank a punt at an inopportune time? Do you trust the coverage teams to hold Bama to minimal returns all game?

Like it or not, Les is 3-6 vs. Saban (2-6 if you take out the 2007 season which seems to be an anomaly for Bama) I don't think Saban is an infinitely better coach that Miles, but I think in this game he's willing to do what is necessary to beat LSU, even if that means going out of his comfort zone a bit. On the other hand, I see Les as being more reluctant to come out of his comfort zone in these games. He's going to take the same approach on offense as LSU always does until it is clearly evident that it won't work. I think that is the biggest reason why you've seen LSU be a very good second half team in this game of late (see 2010, 2012, 2014). Once it finally set in that they were just banging their head against a brick wall, he threw caution to the wind and trusted his QB. In many cases (Jefferson, Mett, Jennings) played pretty well once the handcuffs came off.

It's unlikely that LSU can win this game by "protecting" Harris. If they are willing to let him be the playmaker he's show he and the WRs can be, then Bama is about to face the toughest offense they have seen all year. Saban wouldn't admit it, but LSU's skill players scare the hell out of you because they are all big time athletes. You've lost 4 straight to these guys. It's clear that approach isn't going to work. Don't play scared. Believe that your guys are good and let them get after it.