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re: Official Week 4 NFL Bet Thread

Posted on 9/30/15 at 8:23 am to
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25289 posts
Posted on 9/30/15 at 8:23 am to
quote:

Jacksonville a nine and a half point dog @ Indy.

is this a trap?


Jacksonville is terrible but I agree that's too many points. Colts are 0-3 ATS this year and everyone keeps jumping on board each week to lose money on them (65% of the action is on Indy currently).
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
82159 posts
Posted on 9/30/15 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Jacksonville is terrible but I agree that's too many points. Colts are 0-3 ATS this year and everyone keeps jumping on board each week to lose money on them (65% of the action is on Indy currently).


Colts should be getting Trent Cole and Darius Butler back - getting healthier after a horrendous spate of bad injury luck to start the season. Colts also getting back another TE which gives Luck more options - especially under duress. Indy's top CB Vontae Davis returned last week against TEN.

Jags could be down 2 CB's (Gratz and House) and their third safety (Evans).

Colts will win this game and likely cover (75% chance they win according to spitout and my metrics favor them slightly more).
This post was edited on 9/30/15 at 8:38 am
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