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re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:51 pm to Salviati
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:51 pm to Salviati
quote:
That equation can be expressed as
99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% = 800% = 8
WRONG. and why are you using a base 10 when you have 12 numbers in the series? FAIL.
Again,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
No matter how much you dont want to use the equation, or dont think it applies...IT IS A RULE OF PROBABILITY for mutually exclusive events. We know the events are not mutually exclusive.
1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:08 pm to CptBengal
Dude he's not calculating a probability, he's calculating an expected value. The formula for that is E(X)=sum[p(x)*x] with each x being a trial. If we want the expected value of wins in 12 trials and have the associated probability of winning for each, then this equation states that we multiply the value of a win (1) by the probability of a win (.7 for instance) and add these up across all 12 trials. The loss probabilities are all multiplied by the value of a loss (0) so they all drop out. Here's a link to help you out LINK.
Again, he's NOT calculating the probability of anything. The probabilities are just a component of the expected value formula.
Again, he's NOT calculating the probability of anything. The probabilities are just a component of the expected value formula.
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