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re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to CptBengal
quote:No. I'm right.quote:WRONG.
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
quote:Wrong. You're not even close.
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, then LSU would likely win 10.32 games. I NEVER said that LSU would win 10.32 games.
If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.
quote:
That is the conclusion from your math...and as Guava pointed out, we KNOW that isnt true.
First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.
Second, I just showed you that it's not true.
That is EXACTLY your modus operandi. You state a different conclusion than what the poster stated, then you tell them their conclusion is wrong. It's call the Straw Man Fallacy.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:12 pm to Salviati
quote:
No. I'm right.
No. Let's try this another way, what does the equation say in words:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
quote:
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
Wrong. You're not even close.
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, t
You summed the probabilities....when you sum the probabilities, it MEANS that you are calculating the probability of either A or B happening. i.e., the probability of either winning game A or winning game B. Therefore summing the probabilities, you have assumed that the events are mutually exclusive (they arent).
quote:
If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.
good god man, Why are you taking averages at this point?
This is the equation you used P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
what does P(A or B) mean...do you know?
quote:
First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.
your conclusion was 8.6 games because you got a probability of 0.86.
by summing a series of probabilities. It's hilariously incorrect.
ETA: Not only did you sum the probabilities, you then left that sum as 8.6
It's insane you think this is accurate.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 2:15 pm
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