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re: High School coach who never punts is trying something new

Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:47 am to
Posted by beaverfever
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
32750 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:47 am to
Did he really not already assume that the team with more 20 yards plays has a decent winning percentage? Thats just common sense. Teams that have more first downs probably win usually too. Those are signs of a better team.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 12:52 am
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162258 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Did he really not already assume that the team with more 20 yards plays has a decent winning percentage? Thats just common sense.

Not really

There are a lot of other metrics like turnover margin, total yards, red zone success that could be deemed very important.

The fact that he discovered there was that strong of a correlation between this one statistic is pretty interesting.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 8/19/15 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Did he really not already assume that the team with more 20 yards plays has a decent winning percentage? Thats just common sense. Teams that have more first downs probably win usually too. Those are signs of a better team.
Exactly. The "more plays over 20 yards than an opponent" is essentially an indicator variable of team's quality and performance. Clearly having more big plays is a good goal anyways, but just arbitrarily increasing 20 yard plays as an outcome with maximum inherent value seems like a misinterpretation and extrapolation of the data.
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