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re: What are the odds of this happening? Combination lock related
Posted on 7/22/15 at 6:53 pm to Real Pirate
Posted on 7/22/15 at 6:53 pm to Real Pirate
quote:
Actually, it's 1 in 1000. You forgot about the possible combination 0-0-0.
10 possibilities for 3 different dials.
10 x 10 x 10 = 1000.
That is right, but you need to think there is no way to have a blank number...the suitcase always needs to be on a combination. The first one is a freebie.
999 different guesses need to be made.
1
Posted on 7/22/15 at 7:11 pm to Pectus
quote:Correct given that we know the first combination to unlock it.
That is right, but you need to think there is no way to have a blank number...the suitcase always needs to be on a combination. The first one is a freebie.
999 different guesses need to be made.
But I would also bet that the probability is higher than 1/999 given that he is using some prior information to unlock the briefcase. The probability can't be 1/999.
Bayesian probability?
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