re: HR results from the flat seam baseball

quote:

---

Average increase in HRs by the bottom 50 of 2014: 12.36
Average decrease in HRs by the top 50 of 2014: 0.06

---

These are the only relevant stats that you posted. You've been saying repeatedly that it's more likely for a team who hit 40 home runs last year to see an increase of 20+. They actually saw a decrease on average.

quote:

---

163 teams increased their HR/G by at least 40%

---

And how many of those 163 teams hit 40+ home runs last year? That 40% for those 163 teams is going to come out to a numerical average increase of 9...just like I've been saying

quote:

---

54 teams increased their total HRs by at least 20 (The number we keep arguing)

---

No, we've been arguing that it's unlikely that a team who hit 40 home runs is more likely than a team who hit 10 home runs last year to hit 20+ more home runs. How many home runs did those 54 teams hit last year? Probably a lot less than 40 judging by the fact that the top 50 teams saw an average decrease of .5%

quote:

---

163 teams increased their HR/G by at least 40%

---

This 40% comes out to a numerical average increase of 9

quote:

---

123 teams increased their total HRs by at least 11 (More than LSU)
54 teams increased their total HRs by at least 20 (The number we keep arguing)
20 teams increase their total HRs by at least 30
5 teams increased their total HRs by at least 40 (3 SEC teams: Vandy, A&M, and Florida)

---

This skews the numerical average increase up to around 12-15

quote:

---

52 teams decreased their HRs from last year... TOTAL

---

This returns the average increase back to 9...and does nothing to dispute what I've been saying.

quote:

---

Average decrease in HRs by the bottom 50 of 2015: 0.84
Average increase in HRs by the top 50 of 2015: 23.36

---

Your friend already quoted this and it has nothing to do with this conversation. Obviously the top 50 teams of 2015 saw a big increase from last year, if you don't understand why that has nothing to do with the new baseballs then I'm not sure what to tell you

quote:

---

LSU was 19th in total HRs last year and fell to 29th overall. If we had stayed 19th, we would have had 57 HRs (right at the 40% increase).

---

This is completely irrelevant that doesn't mean that the average who hit 40+ home runs saw an average of a 40% increase and that's what we're talking about.

You keep posting a bunch of random stats then rotflmao's but what exactly are you trying to argue? All of those stats agree with me when I say that a team who hits 40 home runs in 2014 isn't any more likely to increase their total by 20+. In fact, it's a LOT more unlikely. Instead of posting random stats and emoji's, why don't you come straight out and tell me why I'm wrong when I say that it's unlikely to expect a team who hit 40 home runs last year to hit more than 9 more home runs due to the new balls, and while you're at it tell me exactly what point you're trying to make.