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re: Some basic numbers about CWS game 1 losers since 1995
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:51 pm to Weekend Warrior79
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:51 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.
No, they didn't start off in the loser's bracket. Some of them didn't get into the loser's bracket until after winning a game and then losing the second one.
Also, although this is not your error so much as the OP's, the number of CWS finalists who went into the loser's bracket is not the relevant question. It's what proportion of teams that go into the loser's bracket get to the CWS final. 120 teams have gone into the loser's bracket after their first or second game since 1995. 10 of those (8.3%) made it to the final, and only three of 80 first game losers (3.75%) won the CWS (according to his numbers).
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:54 pm
2
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:08 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Also, although this is not your error so much as the OP's, the number of CWS finalists who went into the loser's bracket is not the relevant question. It's what proportion of teams that go into the loser's bracket get to the CWS final. 120 teams have gone into the loser's bracket after their first or second game since 1995. 10 of those (8.3%) made it to the final, and only three of 80 first game losers (3.75%) won the CWS (according to his numbers).
Tough crowd. I'm just laying out some basic numbers. Please interpret how you want. Although I disagree, at this point i think the more relevant question is about teams losing game 1, not so much the loser's bracket in general because there are different paths to the losers bracket.
But yes, your post is correct, but my emphasis was on the teams in the finals, not the entire field. The percentages I gave (5%) is simply 2/40.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:46 pm to Nuts4LSU
so historically speaking basically there's a 12.5% chance (5/40) that one of the four teams that lost their first game make it to the finals, but any one team (LSU) in this case there's a 6.25% chance of making it to the finals (5/80)
again just based on these #'s there were 80 teams to lose their first game in the last 20 years and 5 made it to the finals
again just based on these #'s there were 80 teams to lose their first game in the last 20 years and 5 made it to the finals
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 1:47 pm
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