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re: Some basic numbers about CWS game 1 losers since 1995

Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:48 am to
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
16553 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:48 am to
Stats started off good, but then you sort of tailed into to small of a sample size to really measure.

quote:

-30 won first two games
-5 won first, lost second
-5 lost first and advanced though loser's bracket


If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket. That's a pretty significant number. But as for the rest, there is too small of a sample size.

quote:

-2 lost by 7+ and made final: 2002 South Carolina lost 0-11, 2006 OrSU lost 1-11


How many teams lost by 7+ in those first 2 games? What was there final results?

quote:

-0 were national seeds, lost first game by 7+ and advanced to final


How many national seeds lost by 7 plus? And, how many of those national seeds that lost by 7+ lost to another national seed.

Also, how many teams that lost in the CWS had more errors in that game than any other game they played during the season? Of those teams, how many had that trend continue? IMO, there are too many factors that someone can use to argue why LSU will lose tomorrow and/or why they will win the next 6 games.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37902 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:52 am to
quote:

25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.
Boom
Posted by Indigold
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2013
1703 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:57 am to
quote:

25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.

5/40 is not 25%..
Posted by ChunkyLover54
Member since Apr 2015
6543 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Stats started off good, but then you sort of tailed into to small of a sample size to really measure.



This is an informational post, not a scholarly journal, thus "Take this for whatever it's worth" and I'm sorry it's not up to your standards. Feel free to look up the additional info.

The small sample size was tailored to LSU's circumstance and teams who made the finals. 20 years is all I chose to dedicate to this project and it seemed large enough to conclude with reasonable confidence (though not statistically significant) that it's possible but not probable--a conclusion that seems pretty obvious to begin with.

quote:

How many national seeds lost by 7 plus? And, how many of those national seeds that lost by 7+ lost to another national seed.

Zero who made the finals

This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:21 pm
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

there are too many factors that someone can use to argue why LSU will lose tomorrow and/or why they will win the next 6 games.


I'd like to see the argument for why they will win the next six games. That should be interesting.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:42 pm
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.


No, they didn't start off in the loser's bracket. Some of them didn't get into the loser's bracket until after winning a game and then losing the second one.

Also, although this is not your error so much as the OP's, the number of CWS finalists who went into the loser's bracket is not the relevant question. It's what proportion of teams that go into the loser's bracket get to the CWS final. 120 teams have gone into the loser's bracket after their first or second game since 1995. 10 of those (8.3%) made it to the final, and only three of 80 first game losers (3.75%) won the CWS (according to his numbers).
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:54 pm
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