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re: For those complaining about Maineri and his lack of bunting
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:27 am to ell_13
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:27 am to ell_13
If the goal is maximising one run scored probability you are statistically right to bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
2
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:29 am to extremetigerfanatic
quote:Thank you. I came out guns blazing and was way to "you dont bunt". Once i settled into the discussion my main point to take way is not bunting on average is the better play
If the goal is maximising one run scored probability you are statistically right to bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:30 am to extremetigerfanatic
The times I have ever bitched about bunting have been those narrow bunting situations. Ole Miss, Kentucky, and IMO, last night.
I say that college statistics would be much more relevant. And solely LSU's even more so. Say we go back to 2005 and look at the results in innings 7, 8, and 9 in 1-run situations. I'd like to see the outcome percentages.
I say that college statistics would be much more relevant. And solely LSU's even more so. Say we go back to 2005 and look at the results in innings 7, 8, and 9 in 1-run situations. I'd like to see the outcome percentages.
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 9:32 am
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