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Started By
Message
Pels chances to make playoffs = 39.6%
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:39 am
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:39 am
OKC -2000
MIN +1200
Zero-vig odds: -1238 / +1238
Zero-vig probabilities: 92.5% / 7.5%
SAN -202
NOP +181
Zero-vig odds: -188 / +188
Zero-vig probabilities: 65.3% / 34.7%
P(OKC makes playoffs) = P(OKC win) * P(NOP loss) = 92.5% * 65.3% = 60.4%
P(NOP makes playoffs) = 1 - P(OKC makes playoffs) = 1 - 60.4% = 39.6%
of course, this all depends on whether you believe the Vegas odds are the true odds
MIN +1200
Zero-vig odds: -1238 / +1238
Zero-vig probabilities: 92.5% / 7.5%
SAN -202
NOP +181
Zero-vig odds: -188 / +188
Zero-vig probabilities: 65.3% / 34.7%
P(OKC makes playoffs) = P(OKC win) * P(NOP loss) = 92.5% * 65.3% = 60.4%
P(NOP makes playoffs) = 1 - P(OKC makes playoffs) = 1 - 60.4% = 39.6%
of course, this all depends on whether you believe the Vegas odds are the true odds
4
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:47 am to gizmoflak
Point of Fact:
The playoffs begin tonight. Win and progress. That's what playoffs are.
So, the Pels have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
The playoffs begin tonight. Win and progress. That's what playoffs are.
So, the Pels have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:38 am to gizmoflak
I put a hundo on the Pels ML at +180. Total homer pick but I do believe they win with a raucous home crowd and more motivation to win than the Spurs. The main thing that worries me is that the NBA wants the Thunder in the playoffs for financial reasons.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:47 am to gizmoflak
Those odds makers can geaux suck a dick.
GEAUX PELS! BEAT THE SPURS!
GEAUX PELS! BEAT THE SPURS!
Posted on 4/15/15 at 9:07 am to gizmoflak
That looks sound to me but that still sounds low given the inherent advantage the Pels have with the tie breaker. Surprising it's only an incremental difference of less than 5% but I guess not that surprising given that it's not worth all that much with OKC being an extreme favorite.
This post was edited on 4/15/15 at 9:12 am
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