re: Britain discovers 100 billion barrels of oil just south of London

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A bit of geology: The Kimmeridge Clay is arguably the most economically important unit of rocks in the whole of Europe, being the major source rock for oil fields in the North Sea hydrocarbon province. The oil and gas accumulations of the province are considered part of a single petroleum system: the Kimmeridgian Shales Total Petroleum System (TPS). Source rocks of the Kimmeridgian Shales TPS were deposited in Late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous time during the period of intensive exten-sion and rifting. The Kimmeridgian Shales contain typical “type II” mixed kerogen. Oil and gas generation began locally in the North Sea Graben Province by Cretaceous time and has continued in various places ever since.

If they are correct about the not needing to frac the formation it might be analogous to the Austin Chalk formation in Texas that was the hottest oil play on the planet in the 90’s. Though the AC was made of carbonate material the reservoir dynamics would be very similar: naturally fractured reservoir with a high initial production rate with a rapid decline rate yielding a relatively low recover rate. The key to economically developing was not only horizontal drilling but also accurately targeting those areas with higher concentrations of natural fractures. Though more expensive to drill hz wells would be advantageous from the standpoint of minimizing the development footprint as a result of pad drilling.

As far as costs go someone is going to have to risk a fair number of pilot holes (I'm guessing 30+) to get a handle on the economics. Cost is only one part of the economic model. Initial flow and decline rates will also play a decisive role.

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