re: Oil stocks, oversupply and the Iran deal

With the price so low, and Saudi Arabia refusing to cap to meet OPEC guidance, and Iran coming back online, I read in the WSJ that the Iranian government has a break even point of $130/bl. This means they will be losing their @sses off once the Sanctions are lifted. If and when a deal is reached, BTW.

So with Iran taking it up the tailpipe with selling oil at this price after coming out of crushing sanctions, the glut of their pent up production on the market will actually cause them to lose even more money.

Zero Hedge quoted some industry experts as saying after that initial glut moves, Iran's going to need some retooling of their mature fields and significant infrastructure investments to keep up their previous production levels as well as invest in new plays. With them losing their @ss off compared to their break even point, this will require heavy investment as they just won't have the cash to do it.

Which means there will be huge pressure on an isolationist, saber-rattling government that nobody except for broke d!ck Russians wants to work with. They'll be in a real bind. May be ripe for regime change in the near term if this deal pushes through.