re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question

quote:

---

I'm not really sure what you are saying.

If we assume you have a 2.5% chance to make a single shot, and that is consistent (obviously pressure would change things), you would expect to make at least one shot about 40% of the time.

Basically it is 1 - (the probability you won't make a single shot) or 1 - (.975^20) = .397.

---

No, thats not what I am saying.

He said that you would have a 2.5% per shot, and I was calrifying that that expectation is only relevant for a range of 20. In other words, the fact that you are limited in your shots is factored into the expectation. Not, that you shoot any number of shots, and expect to make them at a rate of 2.5% each attempt.

You would expect to make at least 1 shot about 50% of the time, which is the scenario I agreed with, which would also make it an even bargain that you are either rich or going to jail.

The 2.5% each attempt is not the assumption, it was backed into.