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Deflated: the Statistically Impossible Patriots Fumble Record; cheating proved?
Posted on 1/30/15 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 1/30/15 at 5:56 pm
quote:
Sharp Football Analysis:
One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.
quote:
Patriots partisans might crow — well, what good does deflating a football do? Simple. It creates angles on a football that didn’t exist when playing by the rules and allows a runner, passer, center, and, most importantly, a quarterback to better grip the ball. With the avoidance of turnovers being so central to winning football, a deflated football helps you win.
But it gets worse for Brady and the Patriots. Sharp Football Analysis was able to trace the emergence of this phenomena to a bright-line date: 2007. Starting in 2007, the Patriots suddenly began to hold onto the football at a statistical rate likely to occur 1 time in 16,233. A rational person might conclude this is the moment when someone on the Patriots cooked up the scheme to illegally deflate the ball:
As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.
To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:
quote:
Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. … But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.
LINK
There will always be an asterisk next to all of their Super Bowl wins.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 5:57 pm to hikingfan
o0o0o0o0o0o0oooo a graph!
Sold!
Sold!
Posted on 1/30/15 at 5:57 pm to hikingfan
Pretty sure they still get a ring even with an asterisk.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:00 pm to hikingfan
Great article, really.
Consider what would happen to a pitcher who was found to have doctored all his baseballs. Footballs are inflated to a specific PSI range FOR A REASON.
The punishment should be severe.
Consider what would happen to a pitcher who was found to have doctored all his baseballs. Footballs are inflated to a specific PSI range FOR A REASON.
The punishment should be severe.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:02 pm to hikingfan
quote:
or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble.
Wasn't LeGarrette Blount a notorious fumbler before joining the Patriots?
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:05 pm to Rex
quote:
Wasn't LeGarrette Blount a notorious fumbler before joining the Patriots?
Benjarvis Green-Ellis had none during his years with the Patriots, then had 5 in 2 years with the Bengals.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:09 pm to Rex
quote:
Consider what would happen to a pitcher who was found to have doctored all his baseballs. Footballs are inflated to a specific PSI range FOR A REASON.
The punishment should be severe.
Q: What do you call a consistent outlier?
A: Cheating.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:16 pm to hikingfan
Analyzing lost fumble rate is pointless. He's also provided incorrect stats.
This post was edited on 1/30/15 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:20 pm to hikingfan
For what it's worth, this graph and matching statistics are not only incorrect, the Patriots aren't even on the extreme end.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:24 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
For what it's worth, this graph and matching statistics are not only incorrect, the Patriots aren't even on the extreme end.
And your evidence is?
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:25 pm to hikingfan
quote:Or you can realize fumbles lost is not a good measure. He also looked at actual fumble rates, but conveniently miscalculated the rates, then took out teams that played in domes (rather than accounting for them in his model; it's a missing data bias). Plus the sample is too small to really make any definitive interpretations. Basically it's a crap analysis and article.
Q: What do you call a consistent outlier?
A: Cheating.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:27 pm to Rex
The other 15 threads this has been brought up in? If you're going to be an arrogant a-hole, you might as well be an arrogant a-hole who knows how to use the search function.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:28 pm to Jcorye1
If you don't have evidence disputing the OP just say so.
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:28 pm to Rex
quote:
And your evidence is?
Go to town
Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:31 pm to buckeye_vol
A couple of questions, tangential to the OP:
1) Did the Patriots deliberately deflate the footballs?
2) If yes, did they do so for a reason?
1) Did the Patriots deliberately deflate the footballs?
2) If yes, did they do so for a reason?
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:37 pm to Rex
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:37 pm to Rex
quote:
Great article, really.
Consider what would happen to a pitcher who was found to have doctored all his baseballs. Footballs are inflated to a specific PSI range FOR A REASON.
The punishment should be severe.
I agree with Rex.
Still:
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