re: The Lesson of Oil

Good stuff Houston, thanks for posting.

quote:

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Most people easily grasp the immediate impact of developments, but few understand the "second order" consequences... as well as the third and fourth.

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This is what separates the Herd from the professionals. But trying to figure out the third and fourth order consequences when, say for instance, the Fed raises interest rates, can lead to a 'this is your brain on drugs' situation. Then, even if you have it all figured out, the market can stay irrational as well.

I agree with the author, coming out of the Tarp hangover with the third and fourth order consequences of oil prices and the probable rate increase from the Fed, 2015 is going to be an 'exciting time'. This is not your Father's market anymore.