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UPDATED: SEC team capable of winning the West with 2 or 3 SEC losses per year?
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:10 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:10 am
Miles has averaged 2-3 losses per season in his time as the HC at LSU. 2.4 to be exact.
Do you feel that 2-3 losses a season will be enough to put LSu incontention, or "in the hunt" for the SECw title and a trip to ATlanta in the coming years?
Looking at the SECw champions over the same time period, the average losses per year is 0.6, with a deviation of 0.7.
This gives us a range of 0.17 to 1.03 losses per year in the SEC for a 95% CI.
This means that Miles falls outside what is expected to compete for championships on average, as he will average more losses per year than necessary.
It will take an extraordinary year to outdo his effort 95% of the time going forward.
Do you feel that 2-3 losses a season will be enough to put LSu incontention, or "in the hunt" for the SECw title and a trip to ATlanta in the coming years?
Looking at the SECw champions over the same time period, the average losses per year is 0.6, with a deviation of 0.7.
This gives us a range of 0.17 to 1.03 losses per year in the SEC for a 95% CI.
This means that Miles falls outside what is expected to compete for championships on average, as he will average more losses per year than necessary.
It will take an extraordinary year to outdo his effort 95% of the time going forward.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 12:46 pm
8
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:10 am to CptBengal
Considering average means we will do better some years, yes Miles is more than capable of winning the West still.
:inb4pumperidiot:
:inb4pumperidiot:
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:14 am to CptBengal
Yes, Beat Bama and not shite the bed against Arky and LSU just needs a not that unthinkable upset to get a share of the West Division and possibly make the trip to Atlanta
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:19 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Considering average means we will do better some years, yes Miles is more than capable of winning the West still.
average does mean we will do better, but to see how much better we need to look at the spread of the data. Let's do that and see what the ceiling, and the floor are, statistically, for a Les Miles LSU team.
we have a mean of 2.4 conference losses per year.
we have a standard deviation of 1.4.
That give us a 95% confidence interval that Les Miles will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games in conference every year.
I dont think that is good enough to compete for the West, do you?
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:20 am to CptBengal
Oh, and fun fact, Saban is currently right at 2.0 losses per year.
So yea, averaging 2.4 is plenty capable.
So yea, averaging 2.4 is plenty capable.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:21 am to CptBengal
No.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:22 am to CptBengal
Are you seriously busting out this kind of analysis when in other posts you say being 7 games above .500 isn't that much different than 8 games under?
Why would anyone take you seriously?
Why would anyone take you seriously?
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:22 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Oh, and fun fact, Saban is currently right at 2.0 losses per year.
So yea, averaging 2.4 is plenty capable.
yep, and he hasnt won the west yet.
If he does, great, but the fact remains the same.
Miles will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games in the SEC every year. with most of those being 2 or 3 loss seasons.
with the SEC currently, that just doesnt seem to be enough.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:24 am to LNCHBOX
Can you comment on the OP?
Or even when I addressed the spread of the data?
It's all fairly basic mathematics. I'm curious to know what you think on it.
Or even when I addressed the spread of the data?
It's all fairly basic mathematics. I'm curious to know what you think on it.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:25 am to CptBengal
quote:
yep, and he hasnt won the west yet.
So now you're applying the average to one season? Seems smart.
quote:
Miles will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games in the SEC every year. with most of those being 2 or 3 loss seasons.
Except for that year he lost 0, but hey those don't count, right?
quote:
with the SEC currently, that just doesnt seem to be enough.
Miley has proven capable of winning the West 3 times out of 10. I'll say he's plenty capable.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:25 am to CptBengal
I hate to be this guy but what are the numbers like from 08, lets say 09 to now? Whether you like it or not it wasn't 100% les' program until 08/09. Plus dating back to 05 is a long way when football is such a what have you done for me lately game.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 11:26 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:25 am to CptBengal
quote:
Can you comment on the OP?
Is this your new go to canned response? I did comment on it. You don't like the answer, and then you're mad I throw your bullshite back in your face. Don't make stupid posts, I won't have bullshite to throw in your face.
ETA:
quote:
It's all fairly basic mathematics. I'm curious to know what you think on it.
Kind of like being 7 games over .500 is "not much different than" 8 games under?
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 11:27 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:27 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
So now you're applying the average to one season? Seems smart.
No, you did. You brought up Alabama.
My post wasnt on what was necessary to win the SECw, just how many SEC games Less Miles will lose every year.
I know you dont like the numbers, but they are facts.
quote:
Except for that year he lost 0, but hey those don't count, right?
In calculating a 95% CI all seasons were included. including the one where he lost zero.
Mathematics says that there is a 95% chance that he will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games per year in the SEC.
It's just a fact.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:30 am to CptBengal
quote:
That give us a 95% confidence interval that Les Miles will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games in conference every year.
I dont think that is good enough to compete for the West, do you?
well we have won is 3 times in the last 10 years, with that average.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:30 am to CptBengal
quote:
No, you did. You brought up Alabama.
their average, not a single season.
quote:
My post wasnt on what was necessary to win the SECw, just how many SEC games Less Miles will lose every year.
quote:
Is an SEC team capable of winning the West
Hmmm....
quote:
n calculating a 95% CI all seasons were included. including the one where he lost zero.
Mathematics says that there is a 95% chance that he will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games per year in the SEC.
It's just a fact.
It's also a fact you use numbers only when they suit you. I've also shown your "analysis" should never be trusted since in your mind 8 games under .500 is not much different than 7 games over. You're a joke.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:32 am to CptBengal
quote:
Mathematics says that there is a 95% chance that he will lose between 1.5 and 3.3 games per year in the SEC.
I'd like to compare all of the West teams in this equation. Obviously, this year is a bit of an outlier with teams like Mississippi State and Ole Miss performing much better than their historical records indicate. Of course, it appears Arkansas will again become a consistent contender so it'd be interesting to see what each head coach in the West is predicted to lose and their loss probability (obviously some have more SEC data to go on than others)
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 11:34 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:38 am to CRAZY 4 LSU
Sure, lets look from 08 first:
We have an average of 2.7 losses per year, with a deviation of 1.6.
that provides a 95% CI of between 1.51 and 3.89 SEC losses per year for a Les Miles team.
If we look since 2009, one season later we see...
a mean of 2.3, and deviation of 1.37.
That provides a 95CI of 1.2 to 3.4 SEC losses every season.
We have an average of 2.7 losses per year, with a deviation of 1.6.
that provides a 95% CI of between 1.51 and 3.89 SEC losses per year for a Les Miles team.
If we look since 2009, one season later we see...
a mean of 2.3, and deviation of 1.37.
That provides a 95CI of 1.2 to 3.4 SEC losses every season.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 11:39 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:50 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
It's also a fact you use numbers only when they suit you.
I know you dont like that miles will lose between 2 and 3 games a year. That's not my fault for running the math, it's Miles for losing that many games.
BTW, if we include OOC games, things get even worse for ole leslie.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:52 am to Boomtown
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:52 am to CptBengal
quote:
I know you dont like that miles will lose between 2 and 3 games a year.
That's not my fault for running the math, it's Miles for losing that many games.
What does any of this have to do with what I said?
You have an uncanny ability to change the subject at the drop of a dime.
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