Started By
Message

re: Has Israel ever started a round of hostilities?

Posted on 11/19/14 at 9:16 pm to
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/19/14 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

In what sense? My impression is that we gently froze Mubarak out, and started trying to make inroads with Morsi when he came to power (assuming, incorrectly, that they wouldn't immediately frick things up), only to be caught flat-footed by the coup and now the Egyptian military doesn't trust us any more.

If I'm misreading any of this, feel free to correct me. But everything I heard during Protective Edge was that Egypt was more or less freezing us out at every opportunity. And the state media under al-Sisi has been taking giant shits on us at every opportunity


The US definitely froze Hosni out. A couple of options existed:
1. Back Hosni, who's credibility was possibly beyond salvaging
2. Foster US credibility and influence in the Egyptian populace by not backing Hosni and give the USGOV a prayer in hell at having some influence over the successors.

In the end we froze out Hosni, most likely because no matter the successor DOS and DOD always have an in through military cooperation. That gamble has worked out so far which was predictable according to recent history.

I could go on and on about this, but anyone who wants to review the congressionally authorized programs in Egypt since the ouster of Mubarak can see that our major inroads have come through our military. The USGOV is contributing actively in the stability of the Egyptian GOV through the security sector and in exchange it has earned some leverage and situational awareness. I expect the payoff to grow rapidly in the coming years.

ETA: The military in Egypt has been the final arbiters for a long time. The succession of leadership has been closely tied to the Egyptian military and that requires fostering confidence in the military among the populace. During the ouster it is notable that the Egyptian military was not significantly threatened by the populace and there is very little evidence that it was ever so unstable that it couldn't fulfill its role as a stabilizing force. The USGOV knows this, and has probably reckoned that significant inroads in the Egyptian GOV go through the Egyptian Military.

I fully expect sisi to take giant dumps on the US publicly, but behind closed doors he isn't exactly turning down help.
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 9:28 pm
Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 12:39 am to
quote:

I fully expect sisi to take giant dumps on the US publicly, but behind closed doors he isn't exactly turning down help.
The question isn't whether he's turning down help, the question is whether he's actually acting in our interests because of it.

In Mubarak's prime, "acting in our interests" meant making nice with Israel and keeping a lid on the MB. But these days Israel and Egypt don't need our encouragement to work together. Egypt, or at least their military, is more concerned with keeping the MB under its boot than any kind of Nasser-era sentiment for Palestine. They are going to back Israel to the hilt at least where Gaza is concerned, especially after Hamas and MB made buddies during the Morsi regime.

What we actually need Egypt to do now is to be a moderating influence and a good-faith neutral party between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and that's where they seem to be taking a page from the Israeli strategy of "take the money and do what you want." LINK
This post was edited on 11/20/14 at 12:41 am
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 1Next pagelast page
refresh

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram