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re: Average sports bettor smarter than the average fan?

Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:19 am to
Posted by Mephistopheles
Member since Aug 2007
8328 posts
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:19 am to
quote:

average bettors break even or lose more than they win most of the time I guess.


No guessing needed. Just logic.

50 people bet $100 on the Pats to cover. 50 people bet $100 on the Colts to cover. Bookie pays out slightly less than even money, let's say 95c on the dollar. Pats cover. Bookie pays 50 people $195 and takes 50 people's $200.

Or even simpler, you and a friend toss a coin. You bet $5 each. Winner gets $9.50, loser loses $5, bookie keeps 50c. Keep doing this over and over, the chances someone goes broke increases with every toss.
Posted by Louie T
htx
Member since Dec 2006
36321 posts
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:27 am to
I question your ability to use logic & reason if you think your first situation is how gambling plays out in reality or if you think gambling is akin to flipping a coin.
Posted by the_watcher
Jarule's House
Member since Nov 2005
3450 posts
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:35 am to
quote:

50 people bet $100 on the Pats to cover. 50 people bet $100 on the Colts to cover. Bookie pays out slightly less than even money, let's say 95c on the dollar. Pats cover. Bookie pays 50 people $195 and takes 50 people's $200.


This never happens. Ohhh but but but the bookie just wants even money on both sides blah blah blah do you people realize how often a book/bookie has exactly even action on both sides of a game? Never. It literally never happens. Yea but if that's the case then they lay it off themselves to another bookie and that's how they make money they have no risk just more blah blah blah shut up. They do not. On just about every game they need a side. Every single one
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