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For those that are hoping for meaningful legislation in the next 2 years...
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:21 pm
I wouldn't expect anything more than "low-hanging fruit" for two big reasons. First, the 2016 Senate map for Republicans looks worse that this year did for Democrats. Now this can be misleading as gubernatorial results this time around defied the map, but the key here isn't whether or not the GOP keeps the Senate in 2016, it's whether they have political security for the next two years. With this overhang you likely won't see much in the way of meaningful compromise that would jeopardize their seats.
Secondly, the moderate group of Democrats just got smaller. Most of the defeated Democratic incumbents were some of the moderate camp, so although policy improvement may be incremental due to the GOP control there are very different objectives between parties.
So what's it mean for legislation? Pubs will send some bills to the floor to repeal parts of the ACA, and depending on the composition most will likely be DOA. Same story with Dodd-Frank. The inability of Congress and the White-House to communicate (really at all) will nuke any chance at meaningful reform (housing, immigration, tax, etc.). We'll just get some repeals of the medical device tax and stuff like that.
My only real worry is the debt ceiling coming up in the spring, Obama and Democrats will likely have to compromise on some of the marginal issues, but if Boehner doesn't keep in line the small sect of crazy fricks that would actually send the US into a default rather than give anything to the left, then we're going to get another replay of 2013 (or worse, god/whatever-deity-you-believe-in forbidding)
Secondly, the moderate group of Democrats just got smaller. Most of the defeated Democratic incumbents were some of the moderate camp, so although policy improvement may be incremental due to the GOP control there are very different objectives between parties.
So what's it mean for legislation? Pubs will send some bills to the floor to repeal parts of the ACA, and depending on the composition most will likely be DOA. Same story with Dodd-Frank. The inability of Congress and the White-House to communicate (really at all) will nuke any chance at meaningful reform (housing, immigration, tax, etc.). We'll just get some repeals of the medical device tax and stuff like that.
My only real worry is the debt ceiling coming up in the spring, Obama and Democrats will likely have to compromise on some of the marginal issues, but if Boehner doesn't keep in line the small sect of crazy fricks that would actually send the US into a default rather than give anything to the left, then we're going to get another replay of 2013 (or worse, god/whatever-deity-you-believe-in forbidding)
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:25 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
actually send the US into a default
how can the US default? tax revenues are more than the service for the debt??
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:32 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Please get Tax Reform on the docket. It's low hanging fruit but gets complicated real quick. They will probably just nibble around the edges, but at least it will be better than trying to close inversion loopholes.
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