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re: CFB teams who control their own playoff destiny
Posted on 10/29/14 at 11:24 am to ballscaster
Posted on 10/29/14 at 11:24 am to ballscaster
My mistake on Ole Miss, I don't know why I left them out.
I didn't include Auburn and Alabama because, whether or not it is right, the committee has already said they will put some emphasis on conference champs. So while the pct of them making it in if they both win out is high (esp Auburn), it's not 100%.
And the problem I see with your reasoning there is that you are focusing too much on current rankings. Looks at it as who will be their competition for the spot once it's all said and done. For example right now Oregon isn't in but it is not impossible for them to make it in over Auburn if they both win out (if Auburn doesn't win the SEC).
The locks are the teams I posted earlier plus Ole Miss, not sure why I left them out. FSU, Miss St, Georgia and Ole Miss.
I didn't include Auburn and Alabama because, whether or not it is right, the committee has already said they will put some emphasis on conference champs. So while the pct of them making it in if they both win out is high (esp Auburn), it's not 100%.
And the problem I see with your reasoning there is that you are focusing too much on current rankings. Looks at it as who will be their competition for the spot once it's all said and done. For example right now Oregon isn't in but it is not impossible for them to make it in over Auburn if they both win out (if Auburn doesn't win the SEC).
The locks are the teams I posted earlier plus Ole Miss, not sure why I left them out. FSU, Miss St, Georgia and Ole Miss.
1
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:28 pm to castorinho
I think you're overestimating the emphasis they'll put on conference championships. Auburn has the #1 SOS right now, and it's actually getting stronger in the next month or so. TCU, for example, has the #45 SOS right now, and it won't crack the top 25. If Auburn had a slightly higher SOS, then I can understand TCU's Big 12 trophy knocking them up a notch.
If Auburn wins out, when exactly do they drop? Let's compare Auburn's remaining schedule with TCU's:
Date - Auburn opponent - TCU opponent
11/1 - Ole Miss - West Virginia
11/8 - Texas A&M - Kansas State
11/15 - Georgia - Kansas
11/22 - Samford - none
11/29 - Alabama - Texas
12/6 - none (or SECCG) - Iowa State
Italicized are the two weeks where TCU has a tougher opponent than Auburn does, and one of those opponents has already been beaten by Auburn, and the other ("none") likely would be Georgia in Atlanta if Auburn wins out. There's just no way TCU passes Auburn if they both win out.
If Auburn wins out, when exactly do they drop? Let's compare Auburn's remaining schedule with TCU's:
Date - Auburn opponent - TCU opponent
11/1 - Ole Miss - West Virginia
11/8 - Texas A&M - Kansas State
11/15 - Georgia - Kansas
11/22 - Samford - none
11/29 - Alabama - Texas
12/6 - none (or SECCG) - Iowa State
Italicized are the two weeks where TCU has a tougher opponent than Auburn does, and one of those opponents has already been beaten by Auburn, and the other ("none") likely would be Georgia in Atlanta if Auburn wins out. There's just no way TCU passes Auburn if they both win out.
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