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re: OFFICIAL Week 10 CFB bet thread™

Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:36 am to
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:36 am to
quote:

I am talking about the main Thurs night ESPN game. The only road fav I can think of this year that covered in the game was Miami last week, but weren't they originally dogs that got steamed to a favorite?


They were, but I dont' see how that's significant.

You're forgetting about Utah covering over Oregon State and UCLA covering over Arizona State by about 90.

quote:

Anyway the FSU/Ville game is just like UTSA/Zona and KSU/Auburn games from earlier in the year. The line today reflects what I posted yesterday.


But it's also just like the games I mentioned above. I mean, I understand Thursday night road games are a tough environment, but that's clearly built into the line, and that was the case at FSU-7. At FSU-3.5, the environment is being way overvalued. FSU is a way better football team than Louisville.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:42 am to
But are they though?

Using advanced statistics, FSU is just slightly more productive than Louisville.

LINK
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3736 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

You're forgetting about Utah covering over Oregon State and UCLA covering over Arizona State by about 90.


These were not primetime ESPN Thurs night games. Go back the last 3 years and look at all the road favs playing on ESPN Thurs night and see how successful they have been.
This post was edited on 10/28/14 at 1:01 pm
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