If you look at this poll as well as others, Reps increase by a few points once pollsters switch from registered voters to likely voters. They factor in turn out of mid term elections which have traditionally been anti-incumbent like in 2010. Rassmussen and Gallup were way off in 2012 because they based their likely voter model on 2010 rather than 2008. Bottom line is unless the Dems have a massive and successful GOTV push like in 2008 and 2012, they'll lose. This race is still within the MOE but history shows races like this one go to the opposition.

This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 5:55 pm

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Posted by TN_Tigers

West Tennessee

Member since Feb 2013

7193 posts

Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:11 pm to Vegas Bengal

quote:
Rassmussen and Gallup were way off in 2012 because they based their likely voter model on 2010 rather than 2008. Bottom line is unless the Dems have a massive and successful GOTV push like in 2008 and 2012, they'll lose. This race is still within the MOE but history shows races like this one go to the opposition.

Agree..2012 was the GOP saying it was going to be like 2010 and the Dems saying it was going to be like 2008. Dems were obviously right.

This time it seems to be playing out where the GOP is saying they have better early vote mobilization which they think translates into more enthusiasm.

Dems seem to be doing well in new registrants so they think its another year of massive GOTV for them. They also counter that the GOP successful early vote is going to be cutting into their election day voter numbers.

I dont see the races breaking the next 2 weeks. They might shift a point or 2. Obviously the incumbents at 40-44 are in deep trouble.

Iowa, where there is alot of data, is interesting. GOP is doing way better than 2010 in early voting. Dems are doing really well in new ballots, especially the last 4 days.

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