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re: 2016 GOP nominee could get a third or more of AA vote

Posted on 10/18/14 at 1:14 am to
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 10/18/14 at 1:14 am to
quote:

Until a bloc demonstrates ability to change, it loses more leverage with each subsequent contest

You have the whole thing backwards. It's the politicians who must woo the voters, not the voters who must woo the politicians. Black folks left the GOP because the party changed, and decided that it no longer was interested in Black votes, and when that mindset changes, Black attitudes will change. Here's how it was explained by a GOP operative in 1970:

quote:

From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 percent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that...but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats.

LINK

And then there's this:

Lee Atwater explains the Southern Strategy

Here's the 1952 Presidential election map:



And here's the 1964 Presidential election map:

This post was edited on 10/18/14 at 1:15 am
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69354 posts
Posted on 10/18/14 at 1:38 am to
In 1956, Eisenhower won Louisiana. While the civil rights act was the final nail in the southern democrat coffin, I would argue that the solid south was beginning to show cracks even before that. Republicans lost the south in 1968 and 1976 as well. And reagan, in 1980, barely won southern states. It was amazing how the conservative icon, in 1980, won LA or SC or TN by only 1-3 points each!
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124174 posts
Posted on 10/18/14 at 5:45 am to
quote:

Black folks left the GOP because the party changed, and decided that it no longer was interested in Black votes
Blame it on whomever. Attribute it to whatever. It matters not. The point is the result. Are "the 90%" better off for their votes? Why or why not?
I'd be honestly interested in your answer tf.

You make the assumption politicians have to "woo voters". That maybe truein today's world. I hate the divisive BS that politics has become. Nonetheless, it is what it is.

The question then, for a 12% minority, is which voters are "wooed" and to what end. If the premise is divide-and-conquer by peeling off constituencies, why would the GOP go after one so small and so entrenched, as compared to lower hanging fruit, i.e., ""the women's vote" or ""Hispanics"".

Again, I am happy as a lark Rand is discussing his policies in speeches to predominantly Black audiences. I am happy he is presenting his policies in speeches to liberal audiences at Berkeley and elsewhere. He offers both a way out, and a way up. He offers not just hope for change, but a method to get there.

In the end though, it is for the voters to decide who best represents a chance for them to improve, a chance for them to flourish, a chance for them to look back and say "Wow, see what I've done. I've done what I would have never thought possible. I built that! I did it!" A vote for more-of-the-same will get exactly what it deserves.

Let's look at it differently.
Hypothetically, what if, regardless of the GOP candidate, "the 90%" voted predominantly GOP in 2016 under the premise of real hope and real change. Assuming the GOP won, what do you suspect resulting influence of "the 90%" over policy might be? What kind of real, true, actual, sincere, and (most importantly) productive attention do you think the Dems might pay that same 90% in subsequent elections? IMO, that is how a constituency exercises power.

Again, it's a two-way street. If Rand spends a bunch of time and effort proposing ideas which would be far better than current policy for a traditional Democrat constituency, and that constituency shrugs him off in GOP primaries or the General Election, the damage it sustains is likely FAR WORSE than that anything the GOP sustains.

The GOP can win in other ways. However, "the 90%" cannot! "The 90%" will lose 100% of the time if it continues to fall in line for more-of-the-same.
Just the way it is.

This post was edited on 10/18/14 at 5:49 am
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