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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:47 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:47 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Russia, IMO, will default on its sovereign debt (again) within six months
The last time Russia defaulted on its debt was in 1998.
The Russian government halted all government bond sales since July and it just held its first bond sale on Sept 24 since that time. The yields exceeded 9%, a full 100 basis points over the previous auction. The 9.37% rate compares to the US rate on similar term bonds of 2.55%.
The ruble has lost 9% of its value against the US dollar since the Crimea invasion and lost a full 1% today.
The Central Bank of Russia announced today it is considering intervening into the currency market to prop up the ruble's value. That is the last governmental measure available before a currency collapses, like the ruble did in 1998.
What liquidity do they have on hand? I would be surprised if they defaulted within 6 months.
1
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:17 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:Six months is probably a stretch on my part. Probably more like 6 months to a year from now. Is that better?
I would be surprised if they defaulted within 6 months.
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