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re: Tigers a 9.50 pt favorite over Bulldogs
Posted on 9/14/14 at 7:28 pm to MOT
Posted on 9/14/14 at 7:28 pm to MOT
quote:
I saw where you thought it would be 4.5, what do you think it would be if the game was at State?
Its at nine right now so probably LSU -3 in starkville. Vegas is giving LSU a lot of credit here. I suspect the line will close at -7.
eta: the 2011 team was only favored by 3.5 in starkville. This MSU team is better and this lsu team is a lot worse. I dont get the line at all tbh.
This post was edited on 9/14/14 at 7:30 pm
4
Posted on 9/14/14 at 7:30 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:Honestly, won't be shocked if it ends at -5 or -4.
I suspect the line will close at -7.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 7:37 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:
Its at nine right now so probably LSU -3 in Starkville
Right, but do you think State should be favored if the game was there? I'm just trying to get what you think the point differential is between the two. This means they have LSU lined less than a TD above State, that doesn't really seem unreasonable. And I think it opened a little lower in some places and has been bet up.
That '11 line would have been much bigger midway through the season, after some of those games played out, than it was at the beginning.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 7:52 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:
eta: the 2011 team was only favored by 3.5 in starkville. This MSU team is better and this lsu team is a lot worse. I dont get the line at all tbh.
It's in BR not Starkville. That's a 6 point swing in the line, bringing it to 9.5 for the 2011 Tigers. So, they're saying the delta between the teams is close to that of 2011, with the 2011 Tigers gettinf another half point.
Remember also, that they're tring to anticipate the betting not the outcome.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 8:23 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:
eta: the 2011 team was only favored by 3.5 in starkville. This MSU team is better and this lsu team is a lot worse. I dont get the line at all tbh.
Meh, that game was on a Thursday night on the road and it was only our third game of the season. Yeah we dominated Oregon and Northwestern, but it was still only week 3. Also that line got up to 5 and 6 in some places by kickoff.
Mississippi State had a really bad secondary against UAB. Bad bad mismatch. Travin Dural will give their secondary big time problems. Everyone keeps talking about how State is supposed to be so great this year but they haven't done anything to make one think they are any better this year. We have a good defense and elite defense that will present problems for Prescott trying to throw the ball.
Not saying I think LSU covers, I just don't find this line that surprising. In fact, for a home game at LSU at night I would have thought it would get over 10.
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