re: Jennings has, by far, the best QB Rating in the SEC

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What Total QBR Captures


In particular for college football, we introduce this year the Total Quarterback Rating, also known as Total QBR or QBR. And, since college football has imbalanced schedules, QBR will be seen in both a form that adjusts for defenses faced – often called Opponent-Adjusted QBR or Adjusted QBR – and in a form that doesn't adjust for defense, often called Raw QBR or Unadjusted QBR.

The scale of QBR is from zero to 100, where 50 is average. Top quarterbacks are in the upper 80s and 90s for a season. Manziel, in fact, ranked first in QBR in 2012 with a value of 90.5. His unadjusted value was 86.4, also the best among FBS schools. The increase from unadjusted to adjusted reflects that he did face good defenses overall.

Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.

It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks. If Texas A&M gained 5 yards on third-and-4, Manziel's contribution to that play is captured.

• If he threw it the full 5 yards and the receiver was immediately downed, Manziel gets a fair amount of credit for the throw, splitting it with pass blockers and the receiver.

• If he threw it a couple of yards behind the line of scrimmage to a running back, Manziel gets less credit because the receiver and any blockers in front of him did more of the work.

• If Manziel avoided a sack and scrambled for the 5 yards, he gets a lot of credit because his line gave up pressure and his receivers weren't open.

• If it was a designed rush for Manziel to get those 5 yards, he gets less credit than with a scramble because the offensive line often clears a couple of yards for a runner.

• If the defense was drawn offside, Manziel gets a modest amount of credit for that.

• If Manziel just turned to hand the ball off to a back for the 5 yards, QBR doesn't give Manziel any credit or even count it as an "action play" – our term for plays in which the QB gets some portion of the credit or debit.

These should make sense intuitively, and our analysis of the data supported these intuitions.

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