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re: Thoughts on Shane Vereen? | I think he's better than his ADP
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:55 am to Lester Earl
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:55 am to Lester Earl
Oh yes. Big time.
0
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:56 am to dj30
quote:
Not even close.
Lemme guess... Edelman? The only WR to play 16 games last season for New England. He caught passes by default. Coincidence Brady goes from consensus top 3 fantasy QB to the 13th best QB last season throwing 5 yard passes to Edelman all season? One of the top passing offense year in and year out and they drop to 10th last year?
Edelman caught 21 passes the year before when the Patriots actually had options
Vereen was the 3rd on the team in receptions and played 8 games (69 targets)
Amendola was 2nd, played 12 games (83 targets)
Gronk was 4th, played 7 games (66 targets)
Dobson and Thompkins were 5th and 6th, both played 12 as rookies (72 and 70 targets, respectively)
Throw Lafell in there now, too.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 10:58 am
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:12 am to GynoSandberg
to get into that even deeper
in games that either Amendola or Gronk missed(11 games), Edelman caught 79 balls, or 7.1 per game.
In games that Amendola, Gronk and Edelman all played in(5 games), he caught 24 passes, or 4.8 per game.
As Gyno said, Vereen and Gronk both missed half of the season.
Amendola was in & out with concussion and groin injuries.
and then you throw in the 2 rookies, who will only be better in their 2nd year.
It's not going to be the perfect storm for Edelman. Anyone that owned him last year knew he was getting a lot of balls by default. I think he finishes in the 60-70 catch range this year. That's only because i figure Amendola and maybe Gronk will miss a few games each .
in games that either Amendola or Gronk missed(11 games), Edelman caught 79 balls, or 7.1 per game.
In games that Amendola, Gronk and Edelman all played in(5 games), he caught 24 passes, or 4.8 per game.
As Gyno said, Vereen and Gronk both missed half of the season.
Amendola was in & out with concussion and groin injuries.
and then you throw in the 2 rookies, who will only be better in their 2nd year.
It's not going to be the perfect storm for Edelman. Anyone that owned him last year knew he was getting a lot of balls by default. I think he finishes in the 60-70 catch range this year. That's only because i figure Amendola and maybe Gronk will miss a few games each .
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:14 am to GynoSandberg
Son, I think you'll be disappoint with Vareen. He's a decent flex option. I don't think he sniffs 80+ catches.
How many completions does Brady have and what's the breakdown?
Dobson, Lafell, Gronk, Amendola, Thompson Edelman, and Vareen.
How many completions does Brady have and what's the breakdown?
Dobson, Lafell, Gronk, Amendola, Thompson Edelman, and Vareen.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:19 am to Toula
quote:
Son, I think you'll be disappoint with Vareen. He's a decent flex option. I don't think he sniffs 80+ catches.
No but Vereen very well might get 80+
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:20 am to Lester Earl
Yeah, I was just glancing at a few games when Gronk was fully healthy, Edelman went
5/44
2/7
1/11
3/27
Gronk was eating up targets: 17, 10, 10, 12 etc
Looking at some of Vereen's targets: 10, 11, 11, 17 etc
Amendola: 14, 14, 9, 8 etc
Just throwing all these guys on the field together at 1 time doesn't leave room for all of them to eat. It's not even that Edelman sucks or anything. But it says something when Gronk and Vereen ate up so much volume in the limited time they were in there.
5/44
2/7
1/11
3/27
Gronk was eating up targets: 17, 10, 10, 12 etc
Looking at some of Vereen's targets: 10, 11, 11, 17 etc
Amendola: 14, 14, 9, 8 etc
Just throwing all these guys on the field together at 1 time doesn't leave room for all of them to eat. It's not even that Edelman sucks or anything. But it says something when Gronk and Vereen ate up so much volume in the limited time they were in there.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:25 am to VermilionTiger
Love Vereen and love his ADP.
Will be trying to target him in every draft.
Will be trying to target him in every draft.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:26 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Im very confident in him. He would've caught close to 90 balls if he was healthy all year. He is Brady's best option after Gronk until one of those WRs emerge.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:28 am to Toula
quote:
Son, I think you'll be disappoint with Vareen. He's a decent flex option. I don't think he sniffs 80+ catches.
I don't think he catches 80 balls. Like Edelman, he benefitted too from guys being out. But, he is also a RB with a career 5 ypc with a penchant for scoring from inside the 5 (8 of his career 12 TDs from 6 yards in or less).
quote:
How many completions does Brady have and what's the breakdown?
Dobson, Lafell, Gronk, Amendola, Thompson Edelman, and Vareen.
Based on 400 completions and everyone being somewhat healthy, I'd probably say:
Gronk: 80
Dobson: 65
Amendola: 60
Vereen: 60
LaFell: 50
Edelman: 50
Thompkins: 40
Outside of Gronk, I could see the rest of the guys being in that 50-60 range. Of course, injuries will change that. Edelman is injury prone himself. Gronk and Amendola are. Vereen missed half the season. Dobson is already hurt.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:29 am to GynoSandberg
without Gronk or Amendola playing
7/79 2 TDs
13/78
7/44
7/118
5/57
4/44
6/64 1 TD
13/139 1 TD
7/77
9/65
With all 3 playing
2/7 (2 targets)
1/11 (4 targets)
3/27 (4 targets)
9/110 2 TDs (11 targets) *Dobson out*
9/102 (12 targets) *Dobson out*
7/79 2 TDs
13/78
7/44
7/118
5/57
4/44
6/64 1 TD
13/139 1 TD
7/77
9/65
With all 3 playing
2/7 (2 targets)
1/11 (4 targets)
3/27 (4 targets)
9/110 2 TDs (11 targets) *Dobson out*
9/102 (12 targets) *Dobson out*
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:32 am to Lester Earl
Well frick.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 11:39 am
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:33 am to Gtothemoney
quote:
We'll frick.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:38 am to VermilionTiger
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:42 am to Toula
quote:
Toula
Give me your breakdown
And everyone else
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:50 am to GynoSandberg
I think Edelman gets about 80-85 catches at the expense of LaFell and Amendola. The rest looks pretty reasonable.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 11:51 am
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:52 am to VermilionTiger
Got him as pick #82, 32nd RB in my draft
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:58 am to papz
Lafell has been the most targeted WR in the preseason. Could be something, could be nothing.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:10 pm to GynoSandberg
I could see Lafell in an Aaron Hernandez type role
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:12 pm to GynoSandberg
I think your breakdown is pretty spot on. A lot of the "experts" keep using the whole average to 97 catches over 16 games thing.
I think 50-60 receptions is where he'll be, but the TDs and rushing yards are harder to predict.
After the top 15 RBs, his upside is just as good as the rest.
As good as he was last year, he still had 2 games with less than 5 pts. That'll kill you.
I think 50-60 receptions is where he'll be, but the TDs and rushing yards are harder to predict.
After the top 15 RBs, his upside is just as good as the rest.
As good as he was last year, he still had 2 games with less than 5 pts. That'll kill you.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:20 pm to Toula
Have to remember some of his games were outliers.
The most damage he did was when NE was down a lot in the second half and needed to pass every down.
Do we really expect NE's D to be suspect again? With Revis and some of the draft picks, I'd expect them to be much better and not having to come from behind a lot.
That's how Woodcock made his money in SD last year. Chargers were always playing from behind and he'd grab 5-7 balls in the fourth quarter alone just on dumpoffs
The most damage he did was when NE was down a lot in the second half and needed to pass every down.
Do we really expect NE's D to be suspect again? With Revis and some of the draft picks, I'd expect them to be much better and not having to come from behind a lot.
That's how Woodcock made his money in SD last year. Chargers were always playing from behind and he'd grab 5-7 balls in the fourth quarter alone just on dumpoffs
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