re: Northwestern Mutual - Should I?

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the point actually being made is that by simply buying and holding a broad based market index ETF, any investor will outperform the vast, vast majority of 'experts' like yourself..this is not an opinion, the is the factual historical record that cannot be disputed

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Well, your argument does not reflect reality therefore it is bogus. It doesn't matter what might happen, it matters what actually happened. The average return is 3-4% in reality. That is what people made, so what the index did was irrelevant.