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re: Beginning of the End of U.S. Dollar Hegemony

Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:27 pm to
Posted by The Sultan of Swine
Member since Nov 2010
7792 posts
Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:27 pm to
Benny, legitimate question (I haven't been keeping up with this lately, and you will probably know)...

Is the Bank of China still holding a ton of dollars? Do they have any known plans to start selling them off, if they haven't already?
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5611 posts
Posted on 7/18/14 at 10:05 am to
quote:

s the Bank of China still holding a ton of dollars?

There are two parts to Chinese dollar holdings.

China is very secretive regarding the composition of its FX reserves, which hit a record $3.99T (which goes to the weakening renminbi) at the end of the 2nd quarter. Back of the napkin has this as give or take ~60% USD, so we'll just say $2.4T. The other part is their Treasury holdings that you could technically consider to be dollars since they have to buy and are denominated in dollars, that are at $1.27T.
quote:

Do they have any known plans to start selling them off, if they haven't already

Well they had been in the 2000's for sheer diversification purposes, which makes absolute sense and they should have. Hell I'm pretty sure the Fed was advising them to do this at some point . The problem is they used the euro as a diversifier and then were got hit with the euro crisis. They can't use the ruble that much because for all the political chest beating, Russia is still not developed in the sense of market breadth and volatility (ask LSURussian about the late 90's default). So they've actually been forced recently to go back into Treasuries and dollars because of how stable and liquid the US is. Don't pay attention to the political announcements and speeches at the IMF, follow the money and you will see exactly how countries really feel about the US. China needs the US 100x more than the US needs China right now, we are their anchor of financial stability. The couldn't control their currency how they do now if not for Treasuries and dollars. That will change with time, as does everything, but it won't be to extent or haste that dollar doomers will tell you.
This post was edited on 7/18/14 at 10:14 am
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