re: Iraq in downward spiral; Who will Obama blame?

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You are clearly more knowledgeable about this issue than me (and post other PT posters). I hope you are right and there is still a chance for success and that there are some leaders willing to make tough choices...the people of Iraq and our vets deserve it.

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You have to look at it from several angles:

1. They've only taken maybe 20% or so demography of the country (probably even less with a half-million refugees from Mosul)
2. They have yet to do anything at all away from their "home field" (heavily Sunni areas). They haven't even attempted it yet. They're talking bluster about taking Najaf and Karbala, but that's a very tall order. As they push further south, they'll start running into Shi'a militias that are much bigger than they are and that have been armed, trained, and guided by the Iranians for over a decade now.
3. I've seen credible estimates of a 10,000 - 15,000 man force. That isn't even close enough to actually hold what they've taken. In addition to that, their logistics trains are going to soon be imperiled.
4. They seized the initiative early, and when that happens in war, it's like lightning (Germany in 1940 as an example). They've caught the IA and government with their pants down, but these guys will eventually get their crap together, dig in, and start fighting back. It's an existential fight for them now. The ISIS were already beaten back at Samarra and have already lost Tikrit.
5. Iraqis - Sunni or Shi'a - aren't particular fond of Shari'a law. They like their cigarettes and their occasional sips of booze and their Lebanese pop music and their soccer and satellite television from Dubai. This isn't Afghanistan. They're also, for the most part, literate. Remnants AQI under Zarqawi form the core of this group - they overplayed their hand severely (in their brutality and Islamic justice) in western and north-central Iraq in 2006/2007. They got forced out and then had their arses kicked because of what they were doing.
6. The Kurds are starting to step into the game with Kirkuk, and the Pesh are absolutely no one to mess with. The ISIS haven't even attempted it yet. I expect to see a brokered deal with more favorable conditions for the Iraqi government to the Kurds soon, and they'll step into Mosul and Tal Afar and maybe some others

By no means is this a good situation, and the Iraqi government has shown very poorly so far, but there are a lot of factors still very much in their favor.