re: Iraq in downward spiral; Who will Obama blame?

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I really wonder if anyone involved in starting/continuing that war expected any outcome other than what we seem to be witnessing. Fareed Zakaria predicted as much in 2003 in his book Future of Freedom. I cannot imagine the pain that families and friends of lost soldiers must be going through when they think about the lives lost for no apparent gain.

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Yes, it could have been/still can be a different outcome. I mentioned major inflection points earlier. Here are a few:

1. Not enacting some of the disastrous decisions of the Coalition Provisional Authority - disbanding the Army and de-Baathification being the most critical
2. Not moving to clear/hold/build earlier in the war
3. Maliki isolating a great many of the western and northern Sunni tribes by not integrating the Sahwa into district police and the federal army
4. Maliki winning the 2010 election at all - an Allawi victory would have set the foundation for a more conciliatory Sunni sect
5. (maybe most importantly at this juncture) the Syrian civil war

Unless you believe history is preordained and humans aren't independent actors, then there a lot of different ways this could have played out.