Rand Paul's way-too-early path to the GOP nomination.

It's really way to early predict the outcome of the 2016 GOP primary but, for the fun of it, at this point in time this is how I see Rand Paul's path to the GOP nomination.

First the candidates. I'm going to divide them by establishment and tea party. Rand needs both for different reasons.

Establishment candidates:

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
John Huntsman
Peter King
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry

Tea Party candidates:

Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Scott Walker
Susanna Martinez
Bobby Jindal

Some would argue the Marco Rubio is a Tea Party candidate and that would be true pre senate amnesty vote. Now, post senate amnesty vote Rubio is clearly an establishment shill.

So here's my way-too-early prediction:

January:

Iowa: Paul
New Hampshire: Paul

February:

Colorado: Paul
Minnesota: Walker
Missouri: Santorum
Utah: Santorum
Nevada: Paul
South Carolina: Paul
North Carolina: Chistie
Arizona: Paul
Michigan: Walker

March:

Florida: Bush (not a strong showing Rubio making it competitive)
Massachusetts: Christie
Oklahoma: Paul
Tennessee: Santorum
Texas: Bush (not a strong showing Perry making it competitive)
Vermont: Paul
Virginia: Christie
Alabama: Santorum
Illinois: Walker
Louisiana: Santorum

The field gets narrowed down after March to the following;

Bush
Paul
Christie
Santorum
Walker

April:

Maryland: Bush
DC: Bush
Wisconsin: Walker


Bush has a huge April and the field is narrowed down to Bush Paul and Santorum.

May:

Indiana: Paul
Nebraska: Paul
West Virginia: Paul
Kentucky: Paul
Oregon: Paul
Arkansas: Santorum

May shifts momentum to Paul and Bush considers dropping out but sticks with it. Christie and Walker drop out. So the remaining candidates entering June are Bush, Paul and Santorum.

June:

California: Paul...boom that drive Bush out.
Montana: Paul
New Jersey: Bush
New Mexico: Paul
South Dakota: Paul


The rest is inconsequential after Paul wins California.

The point is Paul needs a crowed establishment field to divide up the large early states of Florida and Texas to stave off Bush. After Bush has a big April the media mantra will be, "are we really going to have another Bush/Clinton presidential election?". That sentiment will help Paul in May.

Anyway that's my way too early 2016 GOP primary prediction that's probably worth less than 2 cents.