re: The ATL Thread 5/28: Braves @ Red Sox

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The best news for La Stella is that he’s not likely to bust, at least when seen through the perspective of his walk and strikeout rates in the minor leagues. Chris St. John’s work on the subject suggests that his bust rate is below 40% based on the fact that La Stella walked 12.6% of the time in Triple-A and struck out only 7.1% of the time.

If you follow this line of reasoning, you’re happy to hear that his coaches love his gritty approach at the plate and laud his two-strike adjustments. You might interested to know that La Stella was one of six players to walk more than he struck out in the International League this year, and that he was the only one of the six that was 25 or younger. Obviously, this man can control the plate.

On the other hand, this is not a prospect with pedigree. Given that he was never ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America (he also didn’t make Marc Hulet’s top 100), La Stella should see a bust rate north of 70%.

And if you’re focusing on this lack of pedigree and the higher bust rate, you’re thinking about defense to some extent. Even the appreciative Baseball America post above includes a section in which La Stella has to tackle the things he has to work on defensively. There are questions about his ability to stick at second base at least. His bat probably doesn’t fit anywhere lower on the defensive spectrum, so there you’d have a bust.

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We know that Tommy La Stella has two thirds of what he needs in order to show a good batting average. But if you want to know his downside, look at Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is elite when it comes to contact, has good plate discipline, but his lack of power has kept his career batting average under .280.

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